The UK is set to have the slowest growth of the G7 countries in 2023. It is forecasted that UK growth will slow to just 0.5 percent in 2023, down from the 1.2 percent it forecast in April.
The IMF said the global economy contracted for the first time since 2020, due to the war in Ukraine and Covid-19.
It said the world “could soon be on the brink of a global recession”, with growth stalling in the UK, US, China, and Europe.
A spokesman for HM Treasury said in a statement: “We know people are feeling the effects of rising prices, caused by global economic factors, caused by the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, He added that the support for households included a £400 discount on energy bills. Personal tax deduction of up to £330 a year.
The IMF has cut its 2022 global growth forecast to just 3.2 percent and warned that the risks of a slowdown are even more acute.
It says that rapidly rising prices are responsible for much of the slowdown, with households and businesses squeezed by a combination of higher prices and higher borrowing costs as policymakers raise rates to combat inflation. Increase interest.
“The global economy, still reeling from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is facing increasingly gloomy and uncertain conditions,” economist Pierre-Olivier Gorenchas said in the international lender’s latest economic report. Wrote in a blog outlining Goi.
He added that since April, when the IMF last issued forecasts, “the outlook has darkened significantly”.
The global economy shrank in the three months to July, the first contraction since the pandemic, the IMF said.
The probability of a recession in the G7 economies – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US, and the UK – is now around 15% – almost four times higher than normal.
While UK growth is expected to remain relatively strong this year, Mr. Gournchas said unusually high inflation – faster than in Europe or the US – is expected to take a toll in 2023.
“If you look at the two years together, it’s actually not too far off where other advanced economies are,” he told the BBC. “One of the things that worries me most about the UK economy is that their inflation numbers seem to be quite high. There is quite a lot going through the economy from high gas prices to wider prices.
“This would signal a further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England and further cut interest rates.”
The UK is set to have the slowest growth of the G7 countries in 2023
The IMF now expects inflation to reach 6.6 percent in advanced economies and 9.5 percent in emerging market and developing economies — about a percentage point higher than it expected in April.
“Inflation at current levels represents a clear threat to current and future macroeconomic stability and bringing it back to the central bank’s targets should be a top priority for policymakers,” Mr Gorenchas said.
“Tighter fiscal policy will inevitably have real economic costs, but delaying it will only increase the odds.”
“We can reasonably hope that China can recover,” Mr. Gornchas said, adding that he was “very concerned about both the path of inflation and the tightening of monetary policy that Due to the slowdown going forward”.
It warned that in a “significant” scenario, in which only some of these risks appear, such as Russian gas being cut off to Europe, global economic growth could fall to 2% next year – The speed at which the world has only fallen five times. Since 1970
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